Innovation Scorecard
The same fair share standard applied to new items only: facing share against market share, adjusted for the availability and compliance each new item actually received. Read it next to the core set to see the whole brand.
New items in the set
Across 15 brands in scope
Under-spaced opportunity
Annual sales sitting behind new items that earn more space
Sell-through, adjusted
75% before adjusting for the availability these items got
Distribution vs demand
New items held back by the shelf, against those the shopper is passing by
Brand space against demand, new items
Facing share on the horizontal, market share on the vertical.
The dashed line is parity — market share equal to facing share. Points above the line pull more demand than the space they hold, so they are under-spaced. Points below the line hold more space than the demand behind them.
What the new items show
- Starbucks Frap Pmpkn Spice 13.7z is past the launch window463 days on shelf at 99% availability-adjusted sell-through. Past 120 days it stops being a new item — either it moves into the core set or it gives its facings back.
- New items are still a thin slice of the wallthe innovation set holds 73.6% of the facings for 92.6% of the market across 90 items. The set is punching above its space, so the next facings should come here before they go to the core.
- Dr Pepper Cream Soda Zero 20z is a genuine demand problem16% availability-adjusted sell-through after 408 days, against Dr Pepper Blackberry 20z Btl at 44% as the comparable. The doors were there; the shopper was not. 10 items read this way in the innovation set.
Brands, ranked by their new-item space
Starbucks Coldbrew1 new item · Dairy | 0.2% | 0.4% | 2.00Under-spaced | 96% raw · 99% adjusted | +$1.2M | |||
Monster Java4 new items · Dairy | 2.7% | 5.3% | 1.96Under-spaced | 96% raw · 99% adjusted | +$12.4M | |||
Starbucks4 new items · Dairy | 1.7% | 3.3% | 1.94Under-spaced | 96% raw · 99% adjusted | +$8.2M | |||
Ghost6 new items · Energy | 4.0% | 7.5% | 1.88Under-spaced | 91% raw · 99% adjusted | +$19.7M | |||
C47 new items · Energy | 3.8% | 7.0% | 1.84Under-spaced | 83% raw · 94% adjusted | +$17.8M | |||
Monster14 new items · Energy | 8.1% | 14.8% | 1.83Under-spaced | 82% raw · 97% adjusted | +$37.0M | |||
Red Bull35 new items · Energy | 20.5% | 37.2% | 1.81Under-spaced | 78% raw · 95% adjusted | +$88.7M | |||
Celsius5 new items · Energy | 3.3% | 5.8% | 1.76Under-spaced | 90% raw · 96% adjusted | +$14.1M | |||
Alani Nu2 new items · Energy | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.75Under-spaced | 67% raw · 91% adjusted | +$4.8M | |||
Rockstar1 new item · Energy | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.50Under-spaced | 64% raw · 87% adjusted | +$3.6M | |||
Bloom1 new item · Energy | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.50Under-spaced | 91% raw · 99% adjusted | +$0.9M | |||
Prime Hydration1 new item · Sports Drink | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.44Over-spaced | 18% raw · 27% adjusted | -$2.0M | |||
Gatorade2 new items · Sports Drink | 9.6% | 3.8% | 0.40Over-spaced | 15% raw · 21% adjusted | -$23.7M | |||
Mt Dew4 new items · CSD | 8.5% | 1.6% | 0.19Over-spaced | 16% raw · 20% adjusted | -$30.0M | |||
Dr Pepper3 new items · CSD | 7.7% | 1.3% | 0.17Over-spaced | 14% raw · 19% adjusted | -$27.5M |
Innovation Fair Share Index is market share divided by facing share for new items only, adjusted for the availability and compliance each item received. Above 1.00 the new item is under-spaced for its demand; below 1.00 it holds more space than it earns. A low sell-through with a high adjusted rate is a distribution problem, not a demand problem — the item never got its facings. Run this next to the Fair Share Index, which covers the core set.
How concentrated the market sales are
New items in full color against the core set in gray, ranked by share of market sales.
67 of 170 SKUs carry 80% of market sales
78 of 170 SKUs carry 90%
Bars are each SKU's share of market sales, ranked largest first. The line is the running total — where it crosses 80% and 90% is how concentrated the portfolio really is.